“The era of global warming has ended; the era of global boiling has arrived. The air is unbreathable. The heat is unbearable. And the level of fossil fuel profits and climate inaction is unacceptable.”
This was the sentiment expressed by the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres earlier this year when addressing the current state of the global approach to the climate crisis.
It is against this background that the United Nations Climate Change Conference’s COP28 is set to take place in Dubai this year. The Conference offers the international community a prime opportunity to rethink, reboot, and refocus the climate agenda, which despite some promising progress at recent conferences, still has much to achieve.
Gathering in Dubai in November this year, representatives from nearly 200 countries will come together to coordinate global climate action for the next year. The consensus is growing that the time for action is now. The climate crisis is becoming ever more pressing - solutions need to be found and, more importantly, agreed as a matter of urgency.
In this situation of urgency, the fundamental question on everyone’s mind is, where should the negotiators be focussing their energies?
Emissions Reduction:
Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change states very clearly that, “The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
Emissions reduction therefor lies at the very heart of the Goals of the Convention and on what Parties at COP28 need to achieve progress. The challenge, as always, will be in balancing the need to reverse emissions while at the same time keeping economies moving forward, especially in the current global economic climate.
As a significant producer of oil and gas, the hosting of the conference by the UAE is controversial in some circles. However, its track record of action to meet the global climate challenge, and as a global hub for commerce and tourism with a growing diplomatic reputation, the country is also uniquely positioned to build bridges across a wide range of sectors. The COP, with its duality as a diplomatic and a technical conference offers the UAE an ideal opportunity to foster consensus to accelerate inclusive climate progress. A challenge the President of the Conference Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber has apparently taken on with relish.
The Conference will have to grapple with the reality that substantive emissions reduction requires countries and businesses to intensify action on all fronts. Some solutions may coalesce around governments agreeing to implement policies and measures that will incentivise and ultimately enforce emissions removal.
The business community also has a role to play in the drive towards real emissions reductions. With sustainable and responsible investing driving the ESG agenda many of the worlds largest companies have made pledges to achieve net zero in the near future. COP28 is an opportunity for the business community to step up and show that they, as much as governments, can lead the way on climate issues.
Climate Financing and Loss and Damage:
As is always the case, any practical implementation relies on the availability of adequate financial resources. If emissions reduction and other measures are to be successful, financing is essential to support the transition to low-carbon economies. The wealthiest economies will argue that building a successful climate financing model requires gathering data on emissions, analysing financial flows, and identifying barriers and challenges to boosting investment and financing.
While that may all be true, the reality of the situation is that as yet, only a fraction of the funding that was agreed in 2009 has been made available. In the meantime, the challenges, and the costs associated with climate change have only escalated and the global economy is less prosperous than it was a decade ago. Even the most generous estimates show that contributions have only achieved between 45% and 65% of what was promised.
Real action needs to be taken on addressing the financing issue. Real investments need to be made in mitigating the impacts of climate. Some 80 years ago, when the world was facing another existential crisis, Franklin D Roosevelt said, "Suppose my neighbour’s home catches fire, and I have a length of garden hose four or five hundred feet away. If he can take my garden hose and connect it up with his hydrant, I may help him to put out his fire...I don't say to him before that operation, ‘Neighbour, my garden hose cost me $15; you have to pay me $15 for it.’... I don't want $15--I want my garden hose back after the fire is over."
This time around, the problem is not far away across a distant ocean, the house that’s burning is the one we all live in together.
Shifting to Implementation:
One of the fundamental challenges facing future action on Climate Change is the question of who is responsible for the implementation of what is agreed among Parties. Unlike other multilateral organisations (the OPCW is an example) the UNFCCC serves primarily as a facilitation body for Treaty negotiations rather than also being an implementor of Treaty agreements. For the UNFCCC in particular there is a need for its mandate to be broadened to include a greater element of implementation.
In addition to the UNFCCC there are the other UN bodies and programs, such as UNEP, the Basel, Rotterdam and Stockholm Conventions, the IPCC and the WMO, to name a few. These Organisations are ideally positioned to engage with countries around the world, and to identify opportunities to enhance progress and effective implementation on a wide range of actions, from slow burn challenges such as ocean plastic pollution, and manging and eliminating persistent organic pollutants, to managing more immediate climate related disaster incidents such as hurricanes that level whole communities in Small Island States.
These programs are a crucial ingredient in the response to climate change, particularly for developing countries where expertise and capacity is less available. A clearer mandate and more resources from Parties for the support of these crucial programs would be an exceptional outcome of the Conference.
COP28 is a prime opportunity to rethink, reboot, and refocus the climate agenda. The key issues to be debated at COP28 require negotiators to come with an open mind and a capacity for flexibility in their policy approaches.
The time for digging in and insisting on your own position to prevail has passed. The change in the climate is gaining momentum and the danger is imminent. Dubai needs to be the COP where Parties finally give e a little on all fronts and come up with real actions that can be implemented immediately.
Our global house is on fire, it's time to stop quibbling over the $15 and time to help put the fire out, it’s time for the delegations coming to Dubai in November to bring a hose.
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